From Anindya Chakraborty
Messy job reports and unreliable labor forecasts take a toll on Biden's first year
This is an interesting and very decent analysis from CNBC.
One almost very accurate barometer of the Labor situation is to look at the complement ie Unemployment.
Both the Continued Claims and Current UE Filings have essentially reverted back to pre-pandemic levels. Only the UE is about 50 bps higher -mainly due to shrinkage of the Labor Force Participation by about 2-3MM folks.
This helps kinda explain the disconnect of very tepid initial Jobs reports which have been significantly upgraded with better data samples in the subsequent releases – which is why the UE rate keeps falling.
