Update on Retail Sales: Jan '22

Retail Sales Update: Jan ‘22

Latest US Retail Sales release in Jan for the month of Dec 2021 was disappointing with CNBC and other sites reacting as “Retail sales declined 1.9% in December, much worse than the forecast for a 0.1% drop.” With the US Economy being 70%+ dependent on Servicing and Retail sector – this is a key barometer for US Economic trend and a drop in the holiday season month of December can’t really be construed as positive. A few things to note however:

1. The decline is sequential MoM
2. The pandemic has accelerated a trend in the ever expansion of the holiday season from being
   concentrated from Thanksgiving to Christmas to almost 2 whole months of Nov-Dec
3. From an Economy/GDP comparison perspective a YoY comparison (which also smooths out any
   monthly effect) is possibly more pertinent

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